Canalys Newsroom - Global PC market 2021 forecast

Global PC market to grow 8% in 2021 despite worsening component shortages

According to Canalys’ latest forecasts, the global PC market (including desktops, notebooks and tablets) will grow 8% in 2021, on top of what was a blockbuster year for the industry in 2020. Total shipments in 2021 are expected to hit 496.8 million units, with all categories enjoying growth. Backlogs on device orders from last year are being boosted by continued demand from workers and students still affected by COVID-19 restrictions. But supply issues will persist throughout this year and be the main restriction on higher growth levels. Growth in 2021 is expected to be frontloaded in the first half of the year, with shipments up 54% in Q1 and 7% in Q2. Chromebooks and tablets will be bright spots for the industry in 2021, achieving growth of 30% and 8% respectively.

Worldwide PC forecasts (shipment volume and annual growth)
Product category	2020	2021	2022	2025	Annual growth 2020-2021	Annual growth 2021-2022	CAGR 2021-2025
Desktops	61.6m	64.4m	67.1m	76.1m	4.4%	4.3%	4.3%
Notebooks	236.0m	258.2m	266.3m	287.6m	9.4%	3.1%	4.0%
Tablets	160.9m	174.2m	175.5m	181.7m	8.3%	0.8%	2.5%
Total	458.5m	496.8m	509.0m	545.3m	8.4%	2.5%	3.5%
Note: desktop, notebook and tablet shipments. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Desktops and notebooks include desktop workstations and mobile workstations respectively. Source: Canalys forecasts, PC Analysis, February 2021

“Following the boom in 2020, the PC industry is set to grow for years to come,” said Canalys Research Director Rushabh Doshi. “Order backlogs and ongoing strong demand present a great short-term opportunity, while the ballooned installed base of PC users presents significant future opportunities for refreshes and upgrades. But Canalys is taking a relatively conservative view, projecting single-digit growth for this year and next due to prevailing uncertainty around supply and distribution. Crucial components, such as displays, GPUs and other smaller chips that drive PC internals, will face a squeeze for most of 2021 and well into 2022, leaving a significant amount of demand unfulfilled. Competition for components from the automotive, smart manufacturing and smart IoT industries will also put pressure on PC vendors, which will see their prioritization fall. Logistics and transportation are also a limiting factor in meeting demand, with vendors turning to more expensive air freight to help cut delivery times. If the industry can overcome these persistent issues, we could see higher growth levels.”

“Chromebooks and tablets were both big winners in 2020, and Canalys forecasts a rosy future for both product categories this year and beyond,” said Ishan Dutt, Analyst at Canalys. “Both are value-for-money alternatives to more expensive Windows devices, catering to segments that are underserved by Wintel. The education segment will continue to be a key driver, with Chromebooks facing some of the most severe order backlogs of any PC category. In addition, Canalys also expects the broader commercial segment to expand deployments of Chromebooks and tablets. As economies begin to open up, restricting human-to-human interaction remains important and tablets allow for simple tasks in retail, hospitality and travel to be undertaken more easily. And in developing markets, Android slate tablets will be of particular importance as they support affordable moves to digital education. Vendors with healthy Chromebook and tablet portfolios will be well placed to achieve growth in the coming years.”

For more information, please contact:

Canalys China
Jason Low: jason_low@canalys.com +86 159 2128 2971
Nicole Peng: nicole_peng@canalys.com +86 150 2186 8330

Canalys India
Rushabh Doshi: rushabh_doshi@canalys.com +91 99728 54174
Jash Shah: jash_shah@canalys.com +91 74117 22710

Canalys Singapore
Ishan Dutt: ishan_dutt@canalys.com +65 8399 0487
Himani Mukka: himani_mukka@canalys.com +65 8223 4730

Canalys EMEA
Ben Stanton: ben_stanton@canalys.com +44 7824 114 350

Canalys USA
Marcy Ryan: marcy_ryan@canalys.com +1 650 862 4299
Vincent Thielke: vincent_thielke@canalys.com +1 650 644 9970

About Canalys

Canalys is an independent analyst company that strives to guide clients on the future of the technology industry and to think beyond the business models of the past. We deliver smart market insights to IT, channel and service provider professionals around the world. We stake our reputation on the quality of our data, our innovative use of technology and our high level of customer service.

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